The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions
Regional NWS Weather Office: El Paso, TX/Santa Teresa, NM
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 252110 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 310 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...THAT MEANS THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. WE WILL BE BREEZY...WARM AND DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND DROP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE MORE SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE DRY LINE PUSHED WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WASN`T TO FAR WEST (DIDN`T MAKE IT TO DEMING) AND NOW IT IS QUICKLY MOVING BACK EAST. ELP SAW A DROP IN THE DEW POINT OF 11 DEGREES ABOUT AN TWO HOURS AGO. SO AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY BUT IT WILL ONLY BE IN EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THE REST OF US WILL HAVE A WARM CLEAR NIGHT. ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED EVEN FURTHER EAST...MAYBE EVEN OUTSIDE OUR AREA. ON MEMORIAL DAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THEN ON TUESDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO WE WILL SEE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FINALLY BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND THE ONE BENEFIT TO THAT IS THAT IT WILL DRAG IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. BY FRIDAY THOUGH WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT SATURDAY THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS. THE GFS BACKS THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL THE MOISTURE AND POPS WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW I`LL INCREASE THE CLOUDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. && .AVIATION...VALID 25/00Z-26/00Z. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY TO OTERO COUNTY. GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL BE P6SM FEW-SCT080-120 SCT-BKN200-250 EXCEPT 3-5SM TSRA BKN050-080 VCNTY TSTMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALLOWING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY TO NORTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DRY LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO ALL AREAS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...MAY GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 69 96 71 96 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 64 93 65 93 64 / 10 10 10 0 10 LAS CRUCES 61 95 60 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 62 94 62 94 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 49 72 48 72 49 / 10 10 10 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 92 64 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 55 92 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 55 96 55 96 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 54 92 55 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 69 95 69 95 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 56 95 59 95 58 / 10 10 10 0 10 FORT HANCOCK 67 98 65 98 67 / 10 10 10 0 10 LOMA LINDA 60 89 61 89 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 FABENS 63 96 65 96 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 62 95 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 69 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 52 93 53 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 HATCH 61 91 60 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 60 95 60 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 60 96 60 96 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 55 81 57 81 57 / 10 10 10 0 0 MESCALERO 49 84 49 84 50 / 10 10 10 0 0 TIMBERON 49 82 49 82 49 / 10 10 10 0 0 WINSTON 51 85 51 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 59 88 59 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 60 91 58 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 48 86 48 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 56 89 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 47 94 50 94 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 49 91 44 91 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 58 88 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 58 93 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 55 94 53 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 57 94 57 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 55 90 54 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ BRICE/PARK
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